V-Lab
Famous Brands Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
4,677.69
decreased by 138.89
1 Week
4,855.12
increased by 38.54
1 Month
5,779.34
increased by 962.76
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 12:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 9, 1994 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 22 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7127 | 4.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0561 | 6.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9122 | 51.52*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.1633 | 1.55 |
| γ2 | -0.6727 | -4.34*** |
| γ3 | 0.9120 | 8.92*** |
| γ4 | -0.5947 | -4.93*** |
| γ5 | 0.1989 | 1.68* |
| γ6 | 0.1167 | 1.34 |
| γ7 | -0.0331 | -0.55 |
| γ8 | -0.2813 | -5.31*** |
| γ9 | 0.3560 | 4.14*** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
22 days
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