V-Lab
FabricAI Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
103,404.00
increased by 10,234.92
1 Week
88,425.31
decreased by 4,743.77
1 Month
56,932.61
decreased by 36,236.47
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 6, 2003 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9588 | 0.28 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2067 | 0.05 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7933 | 0.17 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.1323 | -0.59 |
| γ2 | 0.2403 | 0.52 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
Other FabricAI Inc Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on Equities