V-Lab
FabricAI Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
111,354.20
1 Week
93,690.58
1 Month
55,539.42
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 6, 2003 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 470 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 116 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2630 | 1.14 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7767 | 231.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0824 | -0.26 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 1.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0001 | 0.86 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 1.25 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
470 days
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