XMAX Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
2,895.92
decreased by 265.91
1 Week
3,157.22
decreased by 4.61
1 Month
2,492.13
decreased by 669.70
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2011 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 35 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 6.7585 | 3.20*** |
| αARCH | 0.2200 | 10.45*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7605 | 42.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.8391 | -1.55 |
| γ2 | 4.3728 | 2.26** |
| γ3 | -3.9563 | -3.08*** |
| γ4 | 2.2535 | 2.73*** |
| γ5 | -0.4309 | -0.67 |
| γ6 | -2.2251 | -3.88*** |
| γ7 | 4.3945 | 8.72*** |
| γ8 | -4.9638 | -7.75*** |
| γ9 | 2.3633 | 2.93*** |
| γ10 | 1.1495 | 1.26 |
0.980
Persistence35d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.7585 | 3.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2200 | 10.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7605 | 42.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.8391 | -1.55 |
| γ2 | 4.3728 | 2.26** |
| γ3 | -3.9563 | -3.08*** |
| γ4 | 2.2535 | 2.73*** |
| γ5 | -0.4309 | -0.67 |
| γ6 | -2.2251 | -3.88*** |
| γ7 | 4.3945 | 8.72*** |
| γ8 | -4.9638 | -7.75*** |
| γ9 | 2.3633 | 2.93*** |
| γ10 | 1.1495 | 1.26 |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
35 days
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