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XMAX Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

2,895.92

decreased by 265.91

1 Week

3,157.22

decreased by 4.61

1 Month

2,492.13

decreased by 669.70

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of XMAX Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 14, 2011 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 35 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst6.7585
3.20***
αARCH0.2200
10.45***
βGARCH0.7605
42.23***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-1.8391
-1.55
γ24.3728
2.26**
γ3-3.9563
-3.08***
γ42.2535
2.73***
γ5-0.4309
-0.67
γ6-2.2251
-3.88***
γ74.3945
8.72***
γ8-4.9638
-7.75***
γ92.3633
2.93***
γ101.1495
1.26

0.980

Persistence

35d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

6.7585
3.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2200
10.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7605
42.23***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-1.8391
-1.55
γ24.3728
2.26**
γ3-3.9563
-3.08***
γ42.2535
2.73***
γ5-0.4309
-0.67
γ6-2.2251
-3.88***
γ74.3945
8.72***
γ8-4.9638
-7.75***
γ92.3633
2.93***
γ101.1495
1.26

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

35 days