V-Lab
Ecopack Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
13,319.40
increased by 7,099.77
1 Week
8,963.83
increased by 2,744.20
1 Month
4,167.67
decreased by 2,051.96
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 1, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 162 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0081 | 4.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2759 | 10.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7198 | 27.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -4.3334 | -2.28** |
| γ2 | 7.7154 | 2.87*** |
| γ3 | -7.1860 | -3.99*** |
| γ4 | 9.1115 | 3.61*** |
| γ5 | -9.7251 | -4.02*** |
| γ6 | 6.6356 | 5.63*** |
| γ7 | -2.3921 | -3.58*** |
| γ8 | -2.3599 | -3.61*** |
| γ9 | 6.0857 | 6.90*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
162 days
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