V-Lab
Ecopack Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
12,741.91
1 Week
7,923.35
1 Month
3,670.51
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 1, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 320% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.35 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0585 | 11.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8479 | 226.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1872 | 13.42*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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