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Ecopack Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

12,741.91

increased by 6,876.28

1 Week

7,923.35

increased by 2,057.72

1 Month

3,670.51

decreased by 2,195.12

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:48 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ecopack Ltd ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 1, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 320% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.35
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0585
11.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8479
226.41***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1872
13.42***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days