V-Lab
Ecopack Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
24,143.33
1 Week
14,972.97
1 Month
6,651.36
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 1, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 101 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5759 | 1.48 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6673 | 107.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -3.52*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.05 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9593 | 123.83*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
101 days
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