V-Lab
Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
2,991.72
increased by 462.47
1 Week
2,794.52
increased by 265.27
1 Month
4,306.65
increased by 1,777.40
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 24, 2021 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 42 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6670 | 5.46*** |
| αARCH | 0.1498 | 6.58*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8339 | 27.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0674 | -1.71* |
0.984
Persistence42d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6670 | 5.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1498 | 6.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8339 | 27.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0674 | -1.71* |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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