V-Lab
Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
4,502.13
1 Week
5,206.20
1 Month
4,299.03
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 24, 2021 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 22% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.9451 | 3.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1235 | 12.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8631 | 131.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0268 | 2.20** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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