V-Lab
Development Invt Constr Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
2,060.25
decreased by 130.12
1 Week
2,092.31
decreased by 98.06
1 Month
2,670.33
increased by 479.96
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 11:57 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 10, 2011 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 233 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~233 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4244 | 3.37*** |
| αARCH | 0.1994 | 6.76*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7976 | 27.80*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -3.3640 | -1.26 |
| γ2 | 6.7972 | 1.93* |
| γ3 | -5.9772 | -3.29*** |
| γ4 | 3.1714 | 1.85* |
| γ5 | -0.1314 | -0.07 |
| γ6 | -7.3422 | -2.87*** |
| γ7 | 17.4897 | 5.11*** |
| γ8 | -13.6049 | -4.84*** |
| γ9 | 0.1533 | 0.08 |
| γ10 | 6.6398 | 3.16*** |
0.997
Persistence233d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4244 | 3.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1994 | 6.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7976 | 27.80*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -3.3640 | -1.26 |
| γ2 | 6.7972 | 1.93* |
| γ3 | -5.9772 | -3.29*** |
| γ4 | 3.1714 | 1.85* |
| γ5 | -0.1314 | -0.07 |
| γ6 | -7.3422 | -2.87*** |
| γ7 | 17.4897 | 5.11*** |
| γ8 | -13.6049 | -4.84*** |
| γ9 | 0.1533 | 0.08 |
| γ10 | 6.6398 | 3.16*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
233 days
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