V-Lab
Development Invt Constr ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
5,921.77
1 Week
5,436.14
1 Month
6,254.22
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 08:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 10, 2011 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 33 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 33 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.1253 | 6.08*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9159 | 75.60*** |
| γleverage | -0.1239 | -3.51*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.38 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.02 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9572 | 79.27*** |
0.979
Persistence33d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1253 | 6.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9159 | 75.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1239 | -3.51*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.38 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.02 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9572 | 79.27*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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