V-Lab
Development Invt Constr Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
4,108.78
1 Week
3,700.10
1 Month
4,004.17
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 08:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 10, 2011 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.1995 | 0.79 |
| αARCH | 0.0528 | 3.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9309 | 77.81*** |
| γleverage | 0.0326 | 0.80 |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1995 | 0.79 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0528 | 3.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9309 | 77.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0326 | 0.80 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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