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Development Invt Constr Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

7,451.14

decreased by 552.80

1 Week

7,922.55

decreased by 81.39

1 Month

4,946.17

decreased by 3,057.77

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:57 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Development Invt Constr ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 10, 2011 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 60% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.2143
3.23***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0533
12.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9307
309.09***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0320
3.12***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days