V-Lab
Development Invt Constr Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
7,451.14
1 Week
7,922.55
1 Month
4,946.17
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:57 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 10, 2011 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 60% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2143 | 3.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0533 | 12.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9307 | 309.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0320 | 3.12*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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