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Development Invt Constr Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

4,108.78

increased by 781.62

1 Week

3,700.10

increased by 372.94

1 Month

4,004.17

increased by 677.01

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 08:55 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Development Invt Constr ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 10, 2011 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1386294 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.1995
0.79
αARCH0.0528
3.15***
βGARCH0.9309
77.81***
γleverage0.0326
0.80

1.000

Persistence

1386294d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1995
0.79
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0528
3.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9309
77.81***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0326
0.80

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days