Connplex Cinemas Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 27th, 2026
1 Day
9,013.34
increased by 5,859.40
1 Week
4,146.68
increased by 992.74
1 Month
2,439.54
decreased by 714.40
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 07:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 15, 2025 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1141 | 9.25*** |
| αARCH | 0.1135 | 2.60*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8540 | 12.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -2.0924 | -2.13** |
0.968
Persistence21d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1141 | 9.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1135 | 2.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8540 | 12.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -2.0924 | -2.13** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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