Connplex Cinemas Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 27th, 2026
1 Day
7,163.95
1 Week
3,632.49
1 Month
2,249.88
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 07:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 15, 2025 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.15 |
| αARCH | 0.0781 | 1.27 |
| βGARCH | 0.8977 | 31.53*** |
| γleverage | 0.0483 | 0.49 |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.15 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0781 | 1.27 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8977 | 31.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0483 | 0.49 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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