V-Lab
Clearfield Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
6,350.37
increased by 198.68
1 Week
5,743.81
decreased by 407.88
1 Month
5,465.04
decreased by 686.65
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 09:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1096 trading days (~4.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0285 | 2.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1302 | 10.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8692 | 72.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0290 | -0.22 |
| γ2 | -0.2102 | -1.14 |
| γ3 | 0.6672 | 7.35*** |
| γ4 | -0.9687 | -6.90*** |
| γ5 | 0.9252 | 3.62*** |
| γ6 | -0.4545 | -1.91* |
| γ7 | -0.0496 | -0.35 |
| γ8 | 0.3541 | 2.80*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1096 days
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