V-Lab
Clearfield Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
6,864.60
1 Week
6,128.73
1 Month
5,830.19
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 09:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 106 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1536 | 17.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8734 | 381.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0728 | -4.65*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.14 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9984 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
73 days
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