V-Lab
Clearfield Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
4,887.38
increased by 103.08
1 Week
4,662.12
decreased by 122.18
1 Month
4,475.36
decreased by 308.94
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 09:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 2.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0359 | 7.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9660 | 382.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0038 | -0.50 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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