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Central Finance Co (Lanka) Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026

1 Day

8,335.78

increased by 4,365.62

1 Week

4,721.83

increased by 751.67

1 Month

3,698.64

decreased by 271.52

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 08:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Central Finance Co (Lanka) ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 17, 2003 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 5458 trading days (~21.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2954
1.50
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1448
2.04**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8551
12.09***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-5.1583
-1.41
γ28.1691
1.19
γ3-0.6528
-0.15
γ4-5.6096
-3.60***
γ53.7984
2.70***
γ6-0.1099
-0.12
γ7-1.2035
-2.15**
γ81.4784
4.09***
γ9-1.6224
-3.58***
γ102.3195
2.64***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

5458 days