V-Lab
Central Finance Co (Lanka) Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026
1 Day
8,335.78
increased by 4,365.62
1 Week
4,721.83
increased by 751.67
1 Month
3,698.64
decreased by 271.52
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 08:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 17, 2003 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 5458 trading days (~21.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2954 | 1.50 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1448 | 2.04** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8551 | 12.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -5.1583 | -1.41 |
| γ2 | 8.1691 | 1.19 |
| γ3 | -0.6528 | -0.15 |
| γ4 | -5.6096 | -3.60*** |
| γ5 | 3.7984 | 2.70*** |
| γ6 | -0.1099 | -0.12 |
| γ7 | -1.2035 | -2.15** |
| γ8 | 1.4784 | 4.09*** |
| γ9 | -1.6224 | -3.58*** |
| γ10 | 2.3195 | 2.64*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
5458 days
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