V-Lab
Central Finance Co (Lanka) ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
59,630.97
1 Week
59,961.22
1 Month
60,077.69
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 17, 2003 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.0921 | 2.03** |
| βGARCH | 0.4710 | 3.16*** |
| γleverage | -0.0921 | -0.04 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9999 | 54.32*** |
0.517
Persistence1d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0921 | 2.03** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4710 | 3.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0921 | -0.04 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9999 | 54.32*** |
Persistence:
0.517
Half-life:
1 days
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