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Central Finance Co (Lanka) Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026

1 Day

2,515.39

decreased by 61.73

1 Week

2,390.55

decreased by 186.57

1 Month

2,557.70

decreased by 19.42

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 08:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Central Finance Co (Lanka) ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 17, 2003 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.78
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0008
1.21
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9631
85.04***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0721
1.18

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-