V-Lab
Cerus Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 1st, 2026
1 Day
4,400.25
decreased by 492.44
1 Week
4,869.46
decreased by 23.23
1 Month
4,937.46
increased by 44.77
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 09:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 1997 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 877 trading days (~3.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1116 | 4.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1306 | 19.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8686 | 127.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0061 | -1.71* |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
877 days
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