V-Lab
Cerus Corp Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 1st, 2026
1 Day
4,751.46
1 Week
4,909.93
1 Month
4,741.29
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 09:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 1997 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 145% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.27 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0650 | 5.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8878 | 160.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0945 | 4.44*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
Other Cerus Corp Analyses
Other Asymmetric ILLIQ Analyses on Equities