V-Lab
Clabe Capital CA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
1,038.35
decreased by 19.57
1 Week
1,255.82
increased by 197.90
1 Month
3,944.20
increased by 2,886.28
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 08:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 5, 2025 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2461 | 3.12*** |
| αARCH | 0.3114 | 3.79*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5220 | 4.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -13.2907 | -2.59*** |
0.833
Persistence4d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2461 | 3.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3114 | 3.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5220 | 4.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -13.2907 | -2.59*** |
Persistence:
0.833
Half-life:
4 days
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