V-Lab
Clabe Capital CA Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 2nd, 2026
1 Day
17,161.47
increased by 17,150.51
1 Week
3,448.71
increased by 3,437.75
1 Month
2,675.15
increased by 2,664.19
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 08:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 5, 2025 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3063 | 2.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6951 | 8.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0028 | -0.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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