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Clabe Capital CA ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026

1 Day

0.02

unchanged at 0.00

1 Week

0.02

unchanged at 0.00

1 Month

4,492.29

increased by 4,492.27

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 08:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Clabe Capital CA ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 5, 2025 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~138 days
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow101
αARCH1.0000
2,053.37***
βGARCH0.0026
153.65***
γleverage-0.0152
-18.23***
λ₁tau intercept0.0000
0.00
λ₂forecast adj.0.0000
10.00***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000

0.995

Persistence

138d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

101
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

1.0000
2,053.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0026
153.65***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0152
-18.23***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
10.00***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

138 days