V-Lab
Clabe Capital CA ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
0.02
1 Week
0.02
1 Month
4,492.29
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 08:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 5, 2025 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 101 | |
| αARCH | 1.0000 | 2,053.37*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0026 | 153.65*** |
| γleverage | -0.0152 | -18.23*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 10.00*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 |
0.995
Persistence138d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 101 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 1.0000 | 2,053.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0026 | 153.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0152 | -18.23*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 10.00*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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