V-Lab
Pt Bali Bintang Sejahtera Tb Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
148.14
decreased by 37.03
1 Week
201.30
increased by 16.13
1 Month
254.98
increased by 69.81
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 17, 2019 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 731 trading days (~2.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1783 | 1.39 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2209 | 9.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7781 | 34.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -4.8663 | -7.36*** |
| γ2 | 8.3127 | 8.17*** |
| γ3 | -5.0798 | -7.03*** |
| γ4 | 1.9175 | 1.60 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
731 days
Other Pt Bali Bintang Sejahtera Tb Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities