Skip to main content
V-Lab

Pt Bali Bintang Sejahtera Tb ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026

1 Day

181.10

decreased by 44.89

1 Week

240.70

increased by 14.71

1 Month

300.66

increased by 74.67

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Pt Bali Bintang Sejahtera Tb ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 17, 2019 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2175
1.03
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8227
137.85***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0803
-0.19
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
1.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3138
1.38
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.2606
1.27

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days