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V-Lab

Basilic FLY Studio Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

4,215.94

increased by 211.36

1 Week

4,537.20

increased by 532.62

1 Month

4,072.64

increased by 68.06

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Basilic FLY Studio Limited ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 11, 2023 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6145
7.05***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2123
4.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7259
14.62***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.2501
-1.55

Persistence:

0.938

Half-life:

11 days