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Basilic FLY Studio Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

3,713.61

increased by 78.43

1 Week

4,513.38

increased by 878.20

1 Month

4,784.78

increased by 1,149.60

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Basilic FLY Studio Limited ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 11, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6067
7.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2121
4.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7246
14.59***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.2669
-1.73*

Persistence:

0.937

Half-life:

11 days