V-Lab
Basilic FLY Studio Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
3,713.61
increased by 78.43
1 Week
4,513.38
increased by 878.20
1 Month
4,784.78
increased by 1,149.60
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 11, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6067 | 7.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2121 | 4.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7246 | 14.59*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2669 | -1.73* |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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