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Basilic FLY Studio Limited Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

3,764.48

increased by 492.87

1 Week

4,043.00

increased by 771.39

1 Month

5,144.18

increased by 1,872.57

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 07:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Basilic FLY Studio Limited ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 11, 2023 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 24% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
3.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1437
12.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8387
112.26***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0351
2.87***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

693147 days