V-Lab
Basilic FLY Studio Limited Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
3,704.54
1 Week
3,923.66
1 Month
3,875.66
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 11, 2023 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 24% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 3.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1429 | 12.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8402 | 114.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0339 | 2.81*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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