Basilic FLY Studio Limited Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
3,764.48
1 Week
4,043.00
1 Month
5,144.18
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 07:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 11, 2023 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 24% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 3.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1437 | 12.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8387 | 112.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0351 | 2.87*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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