V-Lab
Azorim Invt Dev & Constr Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 23rd, 2026
1 Day
4,709.65
decreased by 364.46
1 Week
4,723.00
decreased by 351.11
1 Month
5,072.20
decreased by 1.91
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 07:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 24, 2002 to Aug 20, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 231049 trading days (~916.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4078 | 0.14 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0924 | 0.02 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9076 | 0.24 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0466 | -0.02 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
231049 days
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