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Azorim Invt Dev & Constr Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 23rd, 2026

1 Day

4,709.65

decreased by 364.46

1 Week

4,723.00

decreased by 351.11

1 Month

5,072.20

decreased by 1.91

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 07:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Azorim Invt Dev & Constr ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 24, 2002 to Aug 20, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 231049 trading days (~916.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4078
0.14
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0924
0.02
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9076
0.24
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0466
-0.02

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

231049 days