V-Lab
Azorim Invt Dev & Constr Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 23rd, 2026
1 Day
5,070.96
1 Week
5,177.60
1 Month
5,721.22
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 07:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 24, 2002 to Aug 20, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 42% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.39 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0688 | 24.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9168 | 217.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0288 | 3.75*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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