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Azorim Invt Dev & Constr Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 23rd, 2026

1 Day

5,070.96

decreased by 335.50

1 Week

5,177.60

decreased by 228.86

1 Month

5,721.22

increased by 314.76

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 07:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Azorim Invt Dev & Constr ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 24, 2002 to Aug 20, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 42% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.39
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0688
24.88***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9168
217.96***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0288
3.75***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

693147 days