V-Lab
Arihant Superstructures Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
10,289.65
increased by 2,320.62
1 Week
7,317.52
decreased by 651.51
1 Month
5,342.38
decreased by 2,626.65
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 25, 2010 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 346573 trading days (~1375.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 25.4041 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2024 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7976 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.1420 | |
| γ2 | -0.8266 | |
| γ3 | 1.9669 | |
| γ4 | -2.6480 | |
| γ5 | 2.1671 | |
| γ6 | -0.6965 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
346573 days
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