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Arihant Superstructures Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

10,289.65

increased by 2,320.62

1 Week

7,317.52

decreased by 651.51

1 Month

5,342.38

decreased by 2,626.65

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Arihant Superstructures Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 25, 2010 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 346573 trading days (~1375.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

25.4041
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2024
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7976
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ10.1420
γ2-0.8266
γ31.9669
γ4-2.6480
γ52.1671
γ6-0.6965

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

346573 days