American Resources Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026
1 Day
11,845.54
decreased by 98.58
1 Week
12,799.23
increased by 855.11
1 Month
9,691.68
decreased by 2,252.44
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 20, 2017 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~693147 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.9282 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.1573 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8427 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0152 | 0.00 |
1.000
Persistence693147d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.9282 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1573 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8427 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0152 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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