V-Lab
American Resources Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
7,878.44
decreased by 390.34
1 Week
8,271.97
increased by 3.19
1 Month
8,532.05
increased by 263.27
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 09:20 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 20, 2017 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 69314 trading days (~275.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~69314 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.2577 | 0.68 |
| αARCH | 0.1514 | 0.25 |
| βGARCH | 0.8486 | 1.39 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0912 | -0.04 |
1.000
Persistence69314d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2577 | 0.68 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1514 | 0.25 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8486 | 1.39 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0912 | -0.04 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
69314 days
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