V-Lab
American Resources Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
6,490.32
decreased by 144.20
1 Week
6,519.73
decreased by 114.79
1 Month
7,515.79
increased by 881.27
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 09:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 20, 2017 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 913 trading days (~3.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.3207 | 2.15** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1681 | 9.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8311 | 43.78*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.9227 | -1.03 |
| γ2 | 2.4318 | 1.78* |
| γ3 | -2.4386 | -2.65*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
913 days
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