V-Lab
American Resources Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
9,883.41
increased by 2,051.67
1 Week
7,544.88
decreased by 286.86
1 Month
7,828.63
decreased by 3.11
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 20, 2017 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138629 trading days (~550.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~138629 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.1444 | 0.23 |
| αARCH | 0.1600 | 0.07 |
| βGARCH | 0.8400 | 0.39 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0580 | -0.01 |
1.000
Persistence138629d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1444 | 0.23 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1600 | 0.07 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8400 | 0.39 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0580 | -0.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
138629 days
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