V-Lab
American Resources Corp Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
10,803.05
increased by 213.39
1 Week
10,553.87
decreased by 35.79
1 Month
9,804.39
decreased by 785.27
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 09:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 20, 2017 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 924 trading days (~3.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 131% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.25 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0894 | 10.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8512 | 221.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1172 | 8.10*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
924 days
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