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Ateliers Mecaniduqes Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

25,255.31

increased by 17,777.98

1 Week

11,158.79

increased by 3,681.46

1 Month

9,466.25

increased by 1,988.92

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 06:11 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ateliers Mecaniduqes ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 10, 2015 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 36 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

35.0882
3.56***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2809
6.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6998
18.15***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ16.4701
6.45***
γ2-7.7964
-5.24***
γ32.2575
2.06**
γ4-5.8337
-4.75***
γ510.2217
5.14***
γ6-4.1187
-2.33**
γ7-6.8523
-6.18***
γ813.1206
6.71***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days