V-Lab
Ateliers Mecaniduqes Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
25,255.31
increased by 17,777.98
1 Week
11,158.79
increased by 3,681.46
1 Month
9,466.25
increased by 1,988.92
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 06:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 10, 2015 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 36 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 35.0882 | 3.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2809 | 6.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6998 | 18.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 6.4701 | 6.45*** |
| γ2 | -7.7964 | -5.24*** |
| γ3 | 2.2575 | 2.06** |
| γ4 | -5.8337 | -4.75*** |
| γ5 | 10.2217 | 5.14*** |
| γ6 | -4.1187 | -2.33** |
| γ7 | -6.8523 | -6.18*** |
| γ8 | 13.1206 | 6.71*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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