V-Lab
Ateliers Mecaniduqes ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
12,878.62
1 Week
5,621.78
1 Month
5,924.36
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 06:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 10, 2015 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1572 | 3.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8908 | 269.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1572 | -2.09** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.02 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9965 | 1,183.46*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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