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Ateliers Mecaniduqes Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

6,271.31

increased by 3,230.61

1 Week

3,890.08

increased by 849.38

1 Month

3,883.22

increased by 842.52

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 06:11 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ateliers Mecaniduqes ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 10, 2015 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
2.82***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0524
5.99***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9475
346.81***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0003
0.02

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days