V-Lab
Ateliers Mecaniduqes Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
6,271.31
increased by 3,230.61
1 Week
3,890.08
increased by 849.38
1 Month
3,883.22
increased by 842.52
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 06:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 10, 2015 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 2.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0524 | 5.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9475 | 346.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0003 | 0.02 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
Other Ateliers Mecaniduqes Analyses
Other Asymmetric ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities