V-Lab
AGNT Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
6,276.40
decreased by 634.22
1 Week
6,120.68
decreased by 789.94
1 Month
6,012.43
decreased by 898.19
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 346573 trading days (~1375.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6809 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1244 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8756 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -1.6737 | |
| γ2 | 2.2298 | |
| γ3 | -0.5119 | |
| γ4 | 0.0193 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
346573 days
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