V-Lab
Access Engineering Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
3,094.80
decreased by 828.69
1 Week
3,813.94
decreased by 109.55
1 Month
2,494.09
decreased by 1,429.40
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 01:13 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 115524 trading days (~458.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.2129 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2483 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7517 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -1.2042 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 0.4335 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 2.2375 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | -3.2188 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | 2.9467 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | -1.0744 | -0.01 |
| γ7 | -1.3703 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | 3.3740 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
115524 days
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