V-Lab
Access Engineering Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
3,983.39
1 Week
5,419.49
1 Month
3,343.03
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 01:13 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4869 | 1.05 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7231 | 47.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.4199 | -0.48 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0017 | 1.21 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 2.50** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.3813 | 10.77*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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