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Shobunsha Holdings Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

4,598.93

decreased by 156.54

1 Week

5,062.61

increased by 307.14

1 Month

5,796.44

increased by 1,040.97

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 07:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shobunsha Holdings Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 14, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 918 trading days (~3.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0878
4.83***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1004
10.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8988
93.06***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0013
0.42

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

918 days