V-Lab
Shobunsha Holdings Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
4,598.93
decreased by 156.54
1 Week
5,062.61
increased by 307.14
1 Month
5,796.44
increased by 1,040.97
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 07:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 14, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 918 trading days (~3.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0878 | 4.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1004 | 10.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8988 | 93.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0013 | 0.42 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
918 days
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