V-Lab
Shobunsha Holdings Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
4,873.30
1 Week
5,450.95
1 Month
5,759.12
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 07:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 14, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1345 | 0.07 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7247 | 3.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0518 | 0.01 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 5.2725 | 0.11 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2612 | 0.13 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7388 | 0.48 |
Persistence:
0.885
Half-life:
6 days
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