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Shobunsha Holdings Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

3,963.40

decreased by 10.71

1 Week

4,316.97

increased by 342.86

1 Month

5,221.05

increased by 1,246.94

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 07:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Shobunsha Holdings Inc ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 14, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 79% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5175
6.99***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0722
22.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8994
467.00***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0568
11.02***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days