V-Lab
Shobunsha Holdings Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
3,963.40
1 Week
4,316.97
1 Month
5,221.05
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 07:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 14, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 79% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5175 | 6.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0722 | 22.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8994 | 467.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0568 | 11.02*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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