V-Lab
Sakai Holdings Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
2,705.62
decreased by 441.44
1 Week
2,926.34
decreased by 220.72
1 Month
2,248.46
decreased by 898.60
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 12:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 17, 2001 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~86643 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7656 | 0.35 |
| αARCH | 0.1568 | 0.05 |
| βGARCH | 0.8432 | 0.28 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0947 | -0.58 |
| γ2 | 0.1342 | 0.50 |
1.000
Persistence86643d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7656 | 0.35 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1568 | 0.05 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8432 | 0.28 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0947 | -0.58 |
| γ2 | 0.1342 | 0.50 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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