V-Lab
Sakai Holdings Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
2,575.55
increased by 860.69
1 Week
1,733.78
increased by 18.92
1 Month
2,550.43
increased by 835.57
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 17, 2001 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~99021 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7662 | 0.24 |
| αARCH | 0.1572 | 0.04 |
| βGARCH | 0.8428 | 0.19 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0960 | -0.41 |
| γ2 | 0.1352 | 0.33 |
1.000
Persistence99021d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7662 | 0.24 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1572 | 0.04 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8428 | 0.19 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0960 | -0.41 |
| γ2 | 0.1352 | 0.33 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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