V-Lab
Sakai Holdings Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
8,116.57
decreased by 830.43
1 Week
6,154.67
decreased by 2,792.33
1 Month
4,051.87
decreased by 4,895.13
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 07:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 17, 2001 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7591 | 0.25 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1551 | 0.04 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8449 | 0.19 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0967 | -0.43 |
| γ2 | 0.1364 | 0.41 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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