V-Lab
Sugimura Warehouse Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
6,428.35
increased by 4,041.16
1 Week
3,072.80
increased by 685.61
1 Month
2,549.48
increased by 162.29
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 1999 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 117 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2101 | 5.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1036 | 10.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8904 | 95.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0981 | -5.31*** |
| γ2 | 0.2365 | 6.25*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
117 days
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