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Sugimura Warehouse Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

6,428.35

increased by 4,041.16

1 Week

3,072.80

increased by 685.61

1 Month

2,549.48

increased by 162.29

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:45 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Sugimura Warehouse Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 29, 1999 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 117 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.2101
5.36***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1036
10.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8904
95.58***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0981
-5.31***
γ20.2365
6.25***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

117 days