V-Lab
Sugimura Warehouse Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
5,973.05
1 Week
2,786.38
1 Month
2,256.25
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 1999 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 42% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9238 | 2.18** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0697 | 18.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9156 | 460.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0293 | 4.30*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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