V-Lab
Sugimura Warehouse Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
6,715.48
1 Week
2,984.92
1 Month
2,405.75
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 1999 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1152 | 13.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8932 | 404.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1152 | -8.57*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.02 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9977 | 1,452.21*** |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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