Yamashita Health Care Hldgs Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
7,491.09
increased by 1,084.22
1 Week
5,132.65
decreased by 1,274.22
1 Month
4,484.66
decreased by 1,922.21
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 08:01 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 23, 2006 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 103 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~103 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9198 | 5.07*** |
| αARCH | 0.1709 | 13.61*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8224 | 65.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.1315 | -5.86*** |
| γ2 | 0.1890 | 5.36*** |
| γ3 | -0.0321 | -1.01 |
0.993
Persistence103d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9198 | 5.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1709 | 13.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8224 | 65.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.1315 | -5.86*** |
| γ2 | 0.1890 | 5.36*** |
| γ3 | -0.0321 | -1.01 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
103 days
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