V-Lab
Yamashita Health Care Hldgs ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
19,954.86
1 Week
13,514.25
1 Month
11,234.56
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 08:33 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 23, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 124 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 116 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1701 | 9.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8380 | 306.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0274 | -0.84 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.8018 | 1.87* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9993 | 924.40*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
124 days
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