V-Lab
Yamashita Health Care Hldgs Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
19,832.26
1 Week
12,835.30
1 Month
10,724.50
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 08:32 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 23, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 84% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 4.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0910 | 28.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8706 | 401.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0768 | 12.54*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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